With the 2024 presidential election approaching, some Americans are thinking about more than how they will vote. They are also considering whether they would want to keep living in the United States if the election does not go their way.
In a May 2024 survey of more than 2,000 Americans, moving-services company HireAHelper found that 26% said they would consider leaving the country if Donald Trump were elected. An identical share said they would consider leaving if Joe Biden won another term. These were expressions of interest, not confirmed relocation plans, and the survey was conducted before Biden ended his reelection campaign on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
Politics Is Becoming a Factor in Where Americans Want to Live
Presidential elections are not the only political events affecting moving decisions. In a February 2024 Redfin report, 32% of 500 surveyed real estate agents said they had worked with at least one client who moved primarily because of state or local laws or politics during the previous year. That does not mean one-third of all homebuyers moved for political reasons. It means agents were encountering the issue in actual transactions.
For some households, relocating is about living under laws they agree with. For others, it is about finding a community where neighbors have similar views. Politics may be part of the decision alongside familiar concerns such as housing costs, employment, schools and family.
HireAHelper's survey also found that 9% of respondents who intended to move in 2024 named dissatisfaction with local politics as their main reason, compared with 5% in the company's prior-year survey. That is a smaller group than those expressing a willingness to move under a hypothetical election outcome.
Voters Have Different Reasons for Considering a Move
The political issues that matter most are not the same for every household. In a May 2024 national Marquette Law School Poll, voters most commonly chose the economy as the single most important issue determining their presidential vote (36%). Immigration and border security followed at 20%, while 10% selected abortion policy.
The same poll found differences by party. Republican voters placed particularly high importance on the economy and immigration. Democratic voters also emphasized the economy but placed greater weight on abortion policy and other issues. For someone thinking about relocating, those policy concerns may influence the states or communities they would consider.
Those choices can work in either direction. A person concerned about reproductive-health laws may look toward a state with different protections. Someone worried about taxation or the cost of living may prefer a state with different economic policies. Neither preference automatically means the person will move after an election.
Considering a Move Is Different From Actually Relocating
Leaving a state, let alone the country, is expensive and disruptive. Someone who says they would move after an election still has to find a job, locate housing, arrange transportation and work out what to do with their current home. International moves can also involve immigration requirements and employment restrictions.
The broader HireAHelper survey found that 30% of respondents planned to move at some point in 2024, for reasons extending well beyond politics. Among people who did not plan to move, 52% cited financial reasons. Money can prevent a move even when someone strongly prefers a different location.
A household may ultimately decide to remain near relatives, keep a stable job or avoid the expense of selling a home. Others may move within the same city or state rather than across the country. A stated willingness to relocate after an election should therefore not be treated as a forecast of how many people will actually leave.
Political Moves Could Create New Housing and Storage Needs
For people who do decide to move, the practical problems are much the same as with any long-distance relocation. They may need to sell a house, break a lease, downsize furniture or wait between homes. Moving to an unfamiliar market can also mean renting temporarily before choosing a permanent place to live.
Temporary storage may be useful during that transition, particularly when a family has belongings that will not fit into a short-term rental or needs time to decide what to take. But storage fees add to the cost of relocation, so keeping a unit indefinitely may not make financial sense.
The November election is still months away, and it is too early to know whether people who talk about leaving will act on those intentions. The independent surveys do show that politics is entering more conversations about where Americans want to live. Whether those conversations result in moves will depend on personal circumstances as much as on the election outcome.
Sources
- https://www.hireahelper.com/moving-statistics/hireahelpers-2024-moving-survey-30-of-americans-plan-on-moving-this-year/
- https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-survey-relocation-politics/
- https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2024/05/23/new-marquette-law-school-poll-national-survey-finds-presidential-race-between-biden-and-trump-continuing-to-be-close/
- https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?os=shmmfp&releaseid=3901